Aaron Schultz: June 2024

Sunday, June 2, 2024

South Africa's ruling ANC loses majority in country's most sweeping political shift in 30 years

Voters during the South Africa General Elections on May 29, 2024 in Johannesburg, South Africa.

Gallo Images | Gallo Images | Getty Images

South Africa's governing African National Congress lost its parliamentary majority of 30 years, in the country's most sweeping political shift since the end of the apartheid.

Popular support for the ANC during the May 29 vote came in at 40%, with the Democratic Alliance (DA) at 21.8%, and the Marxist Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) clinching 9.5%, according to the country's electoral commission with 99.9% of the votes counted. The six-months-old uMkhonto weSizwe party of the country's former president Jacob Zuma, established in December, clinched 14.6% of votes.

The result marks a meteoric fall for ANC from the 57.5% wrested during the previous election of 2019 — at the time, the party's weakest feat since South Africa's first democratic vote in 1994. Long regarded as a symbol of liberation, the ANC has been on the backfoot in a battle with the practicalities of governance in recent years, amid a rise in systemic issues such as declining living standards, chronic power outages, decades-high violent crime rates and unemployment of almost 33%. In 2022, the World Bank named South Africa "the most unequal country in the world."

"Top-of-mind issues for voters are unemployment, loadshedding, corruption, and crime, which have all taken a toll on the country's growth performance for years," analysts at Deloitte said at the start of the month.

Unlike the party's hero Nelson Mandela, who freely formed a power-sharing coalition to bridge distrust with rival parties in the fledgling years of South Africa's democracy, the ANC's incumbent leader Cyril Ramaphosa, 71, will have to negotiate a coalition to retain dominance — kickstarting a stretch of talks and uncertainty over the country's political direction.

Investors will be watching how this changes the course for South Africa's economic growth, pegged at 0.9% this year by the International Monetary Fund.

Inflation persists stickily at 5.2% in the latest May reading, above the South African central bank's objective of 4.5%, where Governor Lesetja Kganyago says the print will stabilize in the second quarter of next year. The bank on Thursday held its main interest rate at 8.25%.

I do not remember anything as I was drunk: Pune teen to cops on Porche accident

Through the interrogation, which lasted over an hour (11:30 am to 12:30 pm), the minor told the police that as he was drunk at the time of the accident he could not remember anything. He was questioned in the presence of his mother, who was arrested on Saturday, and crime branch officials including assistant commissioner of police Sunil Tambe and district child protection officer.

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Despite efforts to elicit information, the juvenile remained tight-lipped during questioning, said police.

“Our officials asked the minor about his location before the accident, his presence in Blak and Cosie pubs, driving the Porsche, details of the accident, tampering of evidence, collection of blood samples and medical tests. To all the questions, the minor had a single answer – that he had no memory of anything as he was drunk,” said a crime branch official. Initial probe had revealed that the minor and his friends had consumed alcoholic drinks at the two pubs where they ran a cumulative bill of ₹48,000.

A couple of days after the accident, police had recorded statements of the two other minors who were in the car.

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Exit Poll 2024 Live Updates: ‘This is not exit poll, it’s Modi media poll…. INDIA bloc will get 295 seats’, says Rahul Gandhi

Opposition leaders on Sunday snubbed exit polls predictions, terming them ‘bogus’ and a ‘fraud’. Congress leader Jairam Ramesh said the predictions were a ‘deliberate attempt’ to justify rigging of the elections, while MP Sanjay Raut said, “there is lot of pressure on these media companies. The exit poll exercise is a corporate game.” Rahul Gandhi also reacted to the predictions, saying: ‘This is not an exit poll, it’s Modi media poll…. INDIA bloc will get 295 seats.”

The exit polls streamed in Saturday night, with all major surveys projecting the BJP-led NDA’s resounding victory in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The BJP and its allies are expected to breach the 300-seat mark once again, with major gains in the southern states where the BJP gained not just vote share but also seats.

Lok Sabha Election Exit Poll Result Live: All major pollsters predict a thumping victory for the NDA, catch latest updates here

How accurate were the Exit Polls in 2014 and 2009?

In 2014, an average of eight exit polls estimated the BJP-led NDA winning 283 seats and the Congress-led UPA 105 seats. However, courtesy the ‘Modi wave’, the NDA ended up winning 336 seats and the UPA with a mere 60. Of these, the BJP won 282 and the Congress 44. In 2009, when the UPA came back to power, an average of four exit polls underestimated the tally of the winner. They gave 195 seats to the UPA and 185 to the NDA. The UPA had finally won 262 seats, compared to the NDA’s 158. Of these, the Congress won 206 seats and the BJP 116.

Congress to skip exit poll debates, BJP reacts

The announcement of the Congress that it will boycott the exit poll debates evoked a strong reaction from the BJP on Friday, with Union Home Minister Amit Shah accusing the Congress of being in “denial mode”.

The controversy began when AICC media and publicity department chairman Pawan Khera wrote on X: “Our statement on the reason for not participating in #ExitPolls. Voters have cast their votes and their verdict has been secured. The results will be out on 4th June. Prior to that, we do not see any reason to indulge in speculation and slugfest for TRP.

We have numbers to form next govt: Amit Shah

Maintaining that “we are in a comfortable position” and “already have the numbers” to form the next government, BJP leader and Union Home Minister Amit Shah has said while he agrees that a strong Opposition is good for democracy, “it’s the janata (people) who will decide that” and it cannot be determined by the wishes of a section. Shah made these remarks in an interview with The Indian Express at his residence in New Delhi, shortly after polling ended for the sixth phase of the elections – the seventh and last phase is on June 1.

What BJP did differently this Lok Sabha polls

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s third Lok Sabha campaign saw some new themes being deployed, even as much of the hectic campaign style of the BJP under him remained the same throughout the gruelling 40-day-long cycle. As always, he led from the front. If Congress manifesto became a target after the party claimed a new BJP government would target the Constitution, the Insta reels comprised videos of Modi directly addressing select people at his rallies. The small meetings involved BJP's Rajya Sabha MPs, plus those who could not get Lok Sabha tickets.

Sharad Pawar on future of regional parties

Suggesting a possible reshaping of Opposition politics after the 2024 elections, Sharad Pawar has said that regional parties will move closer or, in some cases, even merge with the Congress. Among the tallest leaders in the Opposition today, the former Union Minister and Maharashtra Chief Minister Pawar told The Indian Express: “In the next couple of years, several regional parties will associate more closely with the Congress. Or they may look at the option of merging with the Congress if they believe that is the best for their party.”

Asked whether that applied to his own party, the NCP, the chief of the NCP (Sharadchandra Pawar) said, “I don’t see any difference between the Congress and us….Ideologically, we belong to the Gandhi, Nehru line of thinking.

Uddhav Thackeray: ‘Fadnavis made me look like a liar’

Maharashtra is a critical piece of the election puzzle this time — since the last Lok Sabha election of 2019, the traditional “communal vs secular” battlelines have been rearranged beyond recognition, after Shiv Sena and NCP splintered, and both government and Opposition were reconstituted. On the Opposition side, an unlikely alliance has taken shape — between Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT) led by Uddhav Thackeray and the NCP (SP) led by Sharad Pawar. At Matoshri in the leafy Mumbai enclave of Kalanagar, The Indian Express caught up with Uddhav Thackeray, the man who is most in the spotlight.

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Lok Sabha Polls Over, Arvind Kejriwal To Return To Tihar Jail Today

Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal will today return to Tihar jail as his interim bail in a corruption case linked to the Delhi liquor policy ends. Mr Kejriwal had been granted interim bail by the Supreme Court to campaign for the Lok Sabha elections, but the court had asked him to surrender a day after the last leg of polling.

The 55-year-old has also applied for bail at a Delhi court, but the petition will be heard on June 5, and he will have to return to jail.

"The day after tomorrow, I will leave my house around 3 pm to surrender. We are fighting against tyranny, and if I have to sacrifice my life for the country, do not mourn," Mr Kejriwal said in a public address.

The Enforcement Directorate had arrested Mr Kejriwal on March 21 over corruption allegations in the now-scrapped Delhi liquor policy.

The probe agency believes that the Delhi Chief Minister played a key role in drafting the policy and seeking bribes in return for liquor licences. The agency has claimed the AAP received kickbacks of ₹ 100 crore that were then used to fund its Goa and Punjab election campaigns.

The AAP and Mr Kejriwal have refuted all charges and called the arrest and case "political vendetta", coming as it did, weeks before the election.

The Supreme Court granted him interim bail on May 10 to campaign for the elections, following which the AAP chief held a flurry of rallies across the country.

Mr Kejriwal is a key leader in an opposition INDIA alliance formed to compete against the ruling BJP in the 2024 polls.

Voting was conducted in seven phases over six weeks and results will be declared on June 4.

Exit polls have predicted that Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led NDA will win a third consecutive win. Two of the polls have given ranges with NDA predicted to win just over 400 on the upper end.

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Modi magic: Why Indian exit polls predict record BJP win

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi, 73, appears poised for a rare third term and is likely to be re-elected with a thumping majority, exit polls showed on Saturday evening, hammering the opposition alliance in the world’s largest democratic vote ever.

If the official results due Tuesday, June 4, back up these polls, Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will not only come through unscathed by widening inequality, record-high unemployment, and rising prices but might fare better than the last election in 2019. Never before has any prime minister in independent India won three straight Lok Sabha elections with improved numbers each time.

At least seven exit polls released by Indian media organisations predicted that the BJP and its allies would win 350-380 seats of the 543 in the Lok Sabha, the lower house of India’s Parliament.

Refusing to ponder on the exit polls, the opposition INDIA alliance – a group of more than two dozen political outfits hoping to remove the BJP’s Hindu majoritarian government – maintained a stoic confidence that they would secure a majority on counting day.

Exit polls in India have a patchy record and past surveys have both underestimated and overestimated the numbers of different parties. However, they have mostly correctly predicted the larger trends in the last two decades, with some exceptions. Nearly a billion Indians were registered to vote in the giant seven-phase elections that were spread over six weeks and concluded on Saturday evening.

“Modi is extraordinarily popular. Everything about this BJP campaign was about Modi for a reason,” said Neelanjan Sircar, a senior fellow at the New Delhi-based Centre for Policy Research (CPR). “There were certain narratives that emerged that suggested people were upset with the government but translating that into seats was always going to be challenging.”

BJP expands into new areas

While INDIA is projected to do well in the country’s southern states, most exit polls suggest that the BJP may pull off stunning breakthroughs there too.

Several exit polls predict the BJP could bag two to three seats in Kerala, the last stronghold of the Indian left where Modi’s party has never won; while the BJP may win one to three seats in Tamil Nadu, where it drew a blank in the last elections. These wins, if they materialise, could give the BJP a foothold in opposition bastions where it has struggled for decades.

The BJP and its allies are also expected to retain their seats in Karnataka: The BJP won 25 out of 28 seats in the state in 2019. And it could emerge as the single biggest winner in Telangana. Those results would represent a dramatic setback for the opposition Congress party, which leads the INDIA alliance and won state legislative elections – defeating the BJP – in both Karnataka and Telangana only last year.

“The gains in the south are surprising. And predictions suggest a massive gain,” said Asim Ali, a political commentator. “Even if the BJP doesn’t get as many seats [as predicted in the exit polls], the rise in their vote share is a big swing.”

Meanwhile, the BJP is expected to sweep in its stronghold states, including Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Delhi, Uttarakhand and Himachal Pradesh.

The opposition alliance is expected to make marginal gains in Bihar and Rajasthan, both states the BJP had almost swept in the last election, and in the northern states of Haryana and Punjab.

Sudha Joshi, a 76-year-old voter from Chittorgarh, in Rajasthan, did not move her eyes away from her smartphone as news anchors shouted over each other about a “thunderous mandate” for Modi on Saturday evening. She got the smartphone last year under a welfare scheme run by the then-Congress government of the state.

Last December, Rajasthan voted out the Congress and brought the BJP back into power in the state.

Joshi’s political allegiances have changed too. Born in 1947, when India got its independence, Joshi has never missed a chance to vote, she said. A traditional Congress voter, Joshi said she had lost hope in the Nehru-Gandhi family that dominates the party and instead came to see a leader in Modi.

“In 2014, when Modi stood for the first time, I could see a leader who would take India to international heights,” she said, exultant over the exit polls. “We are satisfied with his governance because he is a religious person like us, a true patriot.”

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